Venture secondaries in 2026: liquidity moves inside the private market

For four years the hardest question in venture capital has not been where money comes in, but how it gets out. Data from the first half of 2026 shows a large part of the answer has shifted: liquidity for early shareholders increasingly runs through the secondary market, where existing holders sell stakes to other buyers before a listing or an acquisition.

From niche to liquidity infrastructure

PitchBook put the midpoint size of the US direct secondary market at $50 billion in 2024 and $60 billion in its September 2025 update. By Q1 2026 the annualised figure reached $112.2 billion, surpassing the scale of public listings for the first time. In the four quarters to Q2 2026 it grew to $121.7 billion, approaching the market peak.

These numbers deserve caution. For Q2 2025 through Q1 2026, PitchBook estimated direct secondary transactions in a range from $40 billion to $155.2 billion, with a midpoint of $97.6 billion. That spread says a lot about the market: most trades are undisclosed, reference prices are fragmented, and the same asset can be priced very differently by two buyers.

In the wider private capital market, Evercore recorded secondary volume above $120 billion in H1 2026, up nearly 20% year over year and the strongest first half on record, after full-year 2025 topped $226 billion, a gain of more than 40% over 2024. GP-led activity led with $65 billion. Venture is the exception: volume was flat while dry powder kept building.

Concentration risk: three names leaving at once

The market's biggest weakness is concentration. Hiive data cited by PitchBook shows the top 20 names account for 81.1% of secondary trading value. For years SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic anchored that volume. SpaceX has gone public; OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing listings at valuations that could clear $1 trillion.

When those three leave, the vacancy is real. PitchBook notes returns from the listings will first sit in lockup, then be directed at venture's four-year distribution deficit before any capital meaningfully recycles back into secondaries. In short, cash goes to limited partners before it can fuel the next generation of secondary trades.

• Company-run tender offers happening more frequently through 2026
• OpenAI added retail access inside its latest primary round
• Two NYSE-listed venture funds launched with no accreditation requirement
• The first regulated private stock market on a major exchange, in London

The rules: discounts, SPV structures and transfer rights

On pricing, the market runs at two speeds. PitchBook recorded an average secondary premium of 6% and a median of 3% in Q1 2025, the first positive readings since 2022, while many other startup share sales were marked down 30% to 60% from the last round. In the same market, leaders trade above their carrying value while the rest take deep discounts.

On structure, 2026 shows control returning to the companies. Anthropic cracked down on special purpose vehicles (SPVs), leaving secondary buyers worried their shares could be nullified. At the same time official channels widened: CB Insights notes Stripe ran structured secondary programs at a $159 billion valuation in February 2026, while Anthropic paired a large round with a shareholder sell-down. The trend is clear: whether you can sell depends on whether the company allows it.