Secondaries set a first-half record in 2026: continuation funds become the main exit door

In the first half of 2026, total secondary market deal volume passed US$120 billion, roughly 20% above the US$103 billion record of H1 2025, according to Evercore data cited by PitchBook. What matters is not only the size but the composition: GP-led transactions accounted for 53.7% of volume, reversing the pattern of earlier years when LP-led deals dominated.

When the IPO window narrows, liquidity gets manufactured

The main driver of the record was the single-asset continuation fund: US$34 billion in six months. The structure lets a manager move a strong company into a new vehicle, pay cash to existing investors who want out, and keep holding an asset it is not ready to sell. In short, with M&A and listing markets still constrained, private capital is building its own exit door.

The cash-flow consequences are concrete. Secondary funds' dry powder fell 10% between the start of the year and the end of June, and the capital overhang multiple, which measures available capital against the last twelve months of transaction volume, is now close to 1.0x. Buying power and supply of stakes are converging, rather than the money-chasing-paper imbalance of recent years.

In venture, secondaries now rival IPOs in scale

Within venture specifically, PitchBook recorded US$112 billion of secondary transaction value in Q1 2026 and argues the channel is scaling to rival IPOs and acquisitions, becoming core market infrastructure rather than a side route. On the Forge Global platform, price marks for large private companies now appear every few months: Databricks ran a tender offer on 24 February 2026 at a US$159 billion valuation, then a Series L-2 round on 13 August 2026 at US$190 billion.

Sellers get a price or a haircut, depending on the asset

Record volume does not mean record pricing. The market is splitting: assets seen as well positioned are retained through continuation vehicles, while the rest are discounted because buyers question underlying quality. For individual and angel investors, the lesson is preparation. A company's and existing shareholders' right of first refusal (ROFR), the gap between common stock and preferred stock carrying a liquidation preference, and whether a genuine buyer exists are the three things that decide whether a secondary closes or dies mid-process.

• Transfer provisions in the financing documents: who can block, and for how long
• The class of shares held: common or preferred, and the liquidation waterfall
• The actual buyer: a dedicated secondary fund, an existing investor on the cap table, or nobody